Sunday, September 13, 2009

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Steve Parker: GM - Will "After 60 days, we'll buy it back" make sales? Top
Another "Hail Mary" from GM? Or the real thing? Starting today and running through November, General Motors is offering buyers of their Core Four brands, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Buick and GMC, a 60-day money-back guarantee on their new car and truck purchases. It's called the "60-day Satisfaction Guarantee." The campaign marks GM's efforts to rebound after a 39-day bankruptcy and a $50 billion federal bailout. GM, which is shedding half of its US brands (Pontiac, Saturn, Saab, and Hummer) will try to boost their US market share that has fallen to 19.5% this year from a peak of 50.1% in 1962. It's the second radical marketing move in just a few weeks by GM to try and resurrect consumer confidence in the company since the bankruptcy ended. Could 60 days in a 2010 Buick LaCrosse convince import-buyers to make Detroit their car-maker of preference? The first was begun last month in conjunction with online buying service Ebay. In that program, which has had only modest success but will continue for the time being, some 250 GM dealers in California are posting their new-car inventories for California-only buyers, some cars and trucks up for bid in a traditional auction environment, some marked with a no-haggle "buy it now" price. Here are the details of the new money-back plan: • Covers Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac models for the 2009 and 2010 model years. • Allows customers to return their cars after 31 days and before 4,000 miles. • Does not cover leased vehicles. It's thought this program is the first of its kind for any major car-maker, though it does bear some philosophical resemblance to Chrysler's, "If you can find a better car, buy it!" sales program headed by then-company chief Lee Iacocca in the early 1980s. This 1984 Chrysler K-car limousine was made during the time of the company's, "If you can find a better car, buy it!" campaign While the GM campaign will be fronted by the company's new chairman, Ed Whiteacre, former chief of AT&T appointed to the GM post by the Obama Administration, it's thought that Bob Lutz, GM's powerful and outspoken vice-president with strong influence in the corporation's styling, marketing, public relations and advertising, is the "man with the plan" in this case. We're at a happy stage in the automotive industry where, essentially, in the various price brackets, most things are equal between brands and makes and models. For instance, the average price of a new car in the US is right around $32,000; driving all the cars in that price bracket will yield a lot of good experiences and very few negatives. Objectively, cars and trucks in each major price bracket reflect most of the same positives and quite few negatives. Here's what we think of the new GM program: Apart from price, safety, performance, appearance and fuel mileage, the most important part of the car-buying decision comes from the test drive. Many shoppers make the mistake of being timid during this critical part of the process, often allowing themselves to be "muscled" into driving the car only on certain roads (which will show-off the car's strengths) and for a specific period of time "recommended" by the salesperson. But if buyers test-drove the new car in their own real-world situations, it would have a huge influence on which car they'd buy. In a very real sense, isn't this what GM is offering potential buyers with this new money-back scheme? Buick's 2010 LaCrosse could do a lot to convince US buyers that US cars are up to import quality and even in some cases beyond Even with objective things about the various cars being shopped very similar to most buyers, it's those subjective items --- how the switchgear feels, adjustability of the seats, rear seat room (which most buyers never check), how bright or dim the instrument panel can be made, if reflected sun makes the gauges hard to see in the daytime, if wide A-pillars make front/side vision difficult --- which can turn the buyer one way or another. I usually drive one or more new cars a week to stay familiar with each car-maker's offerings and be able to answer your questions and make recommendations. Recently, I spent a week in a 2010 Buick LaCrosse, and even though the early "pilot" model I drove was not off the actual assembly line (so some glitches are expected), this LaCrosse was more than a rival for its target: the Lexus entry-level luxury sedan, ES350. LaCrosse's fit-and-finish, performance, appearance inside and out and styling are all impressive and even outdo the Lexus on many accounts. GM used the Lexus ES350 as their target car for the 2010 LaCrosse; they've come close to hitting a bull's eye Could 60-days-or-less in a LaCrosse convince a die-hard Toyota/Lexus/Asian-only buyer to go with an American car for perhaps the first time in several generations of his or her family? In my opinion, absolutely. The only problem, as always, is getting those buyers into GM dealerships in the first place. If Ed Whiteacre, Bob Lutz and what is hopefully a newly-invigorated GM marketing team succeed in that undertaking, they might get that US market share up over 20% again ... at least for a start. More on Cars
 
Mahasti Afshar: Twitter Is Now All I Have Top
On September 9, Roger Cohen wrote in "New Tweets Old Needs," ( New York Times /Opinion) "To be a journalist is to bear witness . . . No search engine gives you the smell of a crime, the tremor in the air, the eyes that smolder, or the cadence of a scream." I have no quarrel with that. But he also juxtaposed professional journalism with the "Here Comes Everybody" of social media and stated that in the absence of reporters, "Iran has gone opaque. Its crisis is seen through a glass darkly. Its cries are muffled, its anguish subdued." As someone who since June has been witnessing the events in Iran virtually, I do have a quarrel with that and can vouch that the crisis as reported on Twitter and Facebook, YouTube and Flikr and iReports is anything but opaque. Frenzied , maybe, but incoherent, muffled or subdued? On the contrary. In a country in crisis where foreign journalists are banned, local reporters are jailed, and state media only deliver tabloid news and propaganda -- but where 31% of the population has access to the Internet -- social media are a vital source of news, and then some. Ordinary people are self-training in reporting the facts at increasingly sophisticated levels. "Everybody" is sharing the spirit, the beat, the hopes, and links to substantive information in ways otherwise impossible. Their contribution is in fact so vital that the Green Movement has adopted the tagline, "YOU ARE THE MEDIA." For those who read Persian, the uncensored comments posted on YouTube videos, online newspapers and blogs -- even on the regime's "OpPressTV" -- give us a direct insight into the people's aspirations, many of them far more radical than the reformist leaders'. Add to this Twitter accounts such as @EANewsFeed, @Iran_Translator, and @TehranBureau that not only vet and report user-generated news coherently but also engage users in lively, interactive, real time, online debates. As one tweeter wrote, "Twitter is the global 'town hall' meeting for the pro-democracy movement." In aggregate, the content of social media is an oral history of a grassroots human rights movement in Iran; its form, the relation between the media and the message in the 21st century. Consider this: thirty years ago, Khomeini recorded a message into audio-cassettes in Paris and distributed it secretly in mosques and bazaars in Iran. In 2009, a message evolved in real time on social media by a mix of accidental leaders and masses of people and disseminated openly in cyberspace. In both, the medium was the message. In 1979, the dictated message was, 'I am The One; follow my orders; end of discussion; beginning of theocracy.' In 2009, the living message was, 'we want an open, friendly society; let's have a conversation; let's have some democracy.' If Socrates were alive today, he would be tweeting and interacting frantically with millions and millions of followers, not just telling them. There is no denying the vital contribution of journalists who initially put the ecstasy and the agony of Iran on the radar. But since June 16, I have had nowhere else to go for breaking news except for social media, or for clues to the fate of the men and women who have been arrested, murdered, raped or tortured by the Islamic Republic of Iran that to quote a tweeter, is neither Islamic nor a Republic. People as avatars have been bearing witness to a dream turned horror story, their cries anything but muffled and their anguish anything but subdued. The power of social media has bred a new consciousness in Iran. "Each person a people" is how Mousavi's latest statement, posted on Twitter and Facebook, describes it. Without social media, we would have no-one to turn to today but the professional journalists on the regime's payroll. No thanks. The government is blocking, filtering and slowing down the Internet, but the people are still reporting. Late in the evening on September 6, I tweeted one of my favorite sources in Iran to ask if Twitter was still alive and well over there. The next day he replied, "TEST" and posted a link. When I clicked there he was, alive and well and cheerful and smoking and testing a live video chat! Someone immediately posted a comment: "Don't smoke, it's bad for you." Another tweet read, "Twitter is now all I have, my home, my friends."
 
Alex Geana: French Baller Kicks to Photog at Y-3 Top
At Y-3 the bags, clutches and purses were divine. The shorts were great, so were the tux inspired overcoats. The shear shirts - not so much. Yet there were some strong looks. In the end, five models came out and pulled the Italian Vogue photographer Bruno Rinaldi out of the gaggle. Both Zinedine Zidane the French soccer player and Yohji kicked balls into the net. To the elated joy of the sometimes-stilted fashionistas assembled. The Scene This is my first show at the Armory. Marc Jacobs will later take over this massive space that reminds me of an old football stadium. The inspiration for the collection is Adidas. Yohji Tamamoto loves the sometimes functional and creates some amazing clothing, that are both wearable and don't try to hard. Behind me people are bantering about the difference of living in New York or London. We're sitting on gray blocks, the dapper audience almost like statues. A fashion blogger called Tavi who writes the Style Rookie is sitting in the front row and all the photogs are swarming. She's 13 and dressed perfectly. The PR people are drooling over her. Russell Simmons and is also here. Bill Cunningham is taking picture of random people in the front row and doing his thing, then he goes over to Tavi and snappes her pic. The pictures are below. Check out the rest of my Spring Fashion coverage .
 
Les Leopold: One Year After Lehman: Another Crash Coming? Top
"What I think will change, what I think was an aberration, was a situation where corporate profits in the financial sector were such a heavy part of our overall profitability over the last decade.... That means that more talent, more resources will be going to other sectors of the economy. I actually think that's healthy. We don't want every single college grad with mathematical aptitude to become a derivatives trader. We want some of them to go into engineering, and we want some of them to be going into computer design." President Obama, May 2, 2009, Reuters Obama's statement seems so passé. Now the stock market is rising. Our 401ks no longer are on life-support. The financial sector is showing resilience. And the Great Recession is ending. Then why should we fear another crash? Maybe the most sophisticated economic models all point upward, but our sense of history should be flashing warning lights. There are a few enduring lessons we can't avoid: any nation that fails to find enough work for its people, and that doesn't rein it its obscene distribution of income, is courting catastrophe . Consider these problem areas: 1. As Larry Summers recently said , unemployment will remain, "unacceptably high." Truer words were never spoken. He's telling us that the recovery will be so anemic that current massive job shortfall is likely to continue for years. According to the most recent government numbers, there are about 29 million Americans out of work or forced into part-time work. If that continues, as Summers predicts, consumer demand will be low and misery for millions will be high. That's bad economics. 2. We have done almost nothing about financial institutions that are too big to fail. Supposedly we're supervising them more carefully. But all the evidence suggest that they are off and running into a new round of fantasy finance. Goldman Sachs already is selling repackaged synthetic securities, precisely the kind that crashed the system last time around, (and Moody's again is rating them AAA.) Large banks are making a move into "Death Bonds," finding new ways to skim profits by buying up and securitizing life insurance policies of the elderly and ill. We could stop this madness either by nationalizing the largest institutions entirely, or breaking them down so that they truly were small enough to fail. Trust-busting Teddy Roosevelt would have understood what to do. But in today's Washington such a discussion is off limits. 3. There still are no controls on the specialty derivatives that caused the last crash and likely to contribute to the next one. In fact, I've been told by reliable sources that derivative traders are pooling a bit of their upcoming bonus money to fund a billion dollar lobbying effort to make sure no serious reforms take place. 4. Despite President Obama's insightful words last May, nothing has been done to shrink Wall Street's size, let alone its political power. The Pay Czar was supposed to crack the whip on outrageous compensation packages. Instead, Mr. Czar immediately said that it's okay for Andrew J. Hall, an oil speculator, to receive $100 million in trading fees from CitiGroup, a bank which we basically own. What a Wall Street recruiting poster for new math whizzes! 5. Most importantly, we've failed to address the major cause of the entire mess: the underlying distribution of income and wealth. The fantasy finance casino and its bubbles grew from the fact that the super-rich accumulated too much capital after years and years of tax "reforms" that gushed money to the top. When they ran out of real world investments, their capital rushed to Wall Street's speculative securities. And they are doing it again. You can't limit catastrophic speculation without returning excess capital to society. And there is plenty of excess: The latest tax data shows we have the worst income distribution since 1929. Not only are we failing to learn from history, we are begging to repeat it. The failure of Washington to clamp down on Wall Street is also creating a very negative political feedback loop between government and the public. Most Americans are furious about Wall Street's outsized pay and profits. They are also furious about the inability of the administration and Congress to act. There's a growing sense that the rich and powerful are in control of financial policy and of the political process. This fuels anti-government anger which undermines the things we need government to do: raise taxes on the super-rich; put in place a windfall profits taxes on Wall Street; cap outrageous financial compensation packages; and enact public programs and national industrial policies that create real jobs for the unemployed. Given the failure to enact serious reforms, it wouldn't take much to push the economy off the cliff again: a severe pandemic flu, a terrorist attack, a major weather event or an unexpected failure of a company that is too big too fail could set off a major economic relapse. I sure hope I'm wrong. I hope we're not again betting our future in the fantasy finance casino. I hope the miracle of the markets will lead to a massive boom in jobs and incomes for everyone. I hope everyone's 401ks will prosper. And I hope President Obama will succeed. But as Wall Street recycles the money we have given it to lobby against any and all reforms, it's obvious that hope is not enough. We also need a very strong dose of audacity. Les Leopold is the author of The Looting of America: How Wall Street's Game of Fantasy Finance destroyed our Jobs, Pensions and Prosperity, and What We Can Do About It , Chelsea Green Publishing, June 2009. More on Barack Obama
 
Anamaria Wilson: Game On: Sportswear Dominates Early Fashion Week Trends Top
As Fashion Week gains momentum, the overarching trends begin to emerge. Every season, a fabric or a look that appeared six months previously becomes amplified as designers reinterpret it and take it one step further. Case in point, the sweatshirt. It has been reimagined now by Alexander Wang and others every which way -- from sexy Henley pant versions to saucy dresses; call it sweatsuit couture, if you will. The jaunty romper, too, is back at Jason Wu and Derek Lam . Editors galore were also rocking the look Sunday at the tents. And of course, the new pant, which is actually the short. There were cuffed numbers at Rag & Bone, poppy floral ones at Richard Chai, quilted leather versions at Wang. Granted, this early in the week we've primarily seen young designer shows and these typically skew exactly just that -- young. Spring is a season rife with sportswear looks, and this time out is no exception. Fashion darling Alex Wang took it very literally and headed for the football field with a plethora of varsity ensembles -- the aforementioned sweatshirts playing a large role along with outsize parkas, anoraks and utilitarian khaki. The highlights were the gorgeous leather cognac jacket on Angela Lindvall and super-fresh leopard wedges. Backstage was chock a block with press, photographers, and TV crews hanging on Wang's every word. The boy is in demand -- his after party last night at a sealed off gas station on 14th Street had a line snaking well down the block. Joseph Altuzarra's sophomore effort was a phalanx of looks, leather and suede cobbled with Swiss dot fabric. And while this collection didn't quite live up to the hype, the designer, who worked under Givenchy's Riccardo Tisci, is definitely one to watch. Boy by Band of Outsiders once again delivered on their young, preppy aesthetic and showed a host of cute if utterly commercial looks. This morning brought us Derek Lam who referenced "Asbury Park, Rehobeth Beach, P Town and Key West." The clothes reflected this panoply of summer spots with luxe shorts, sequined skirts, tailored denim and amusing hologram print dresses. There were a lot of rich looks, which was refreshing -- Lam wasn't catering to recessionary woes with a subdued show. Off to the next wave of Victoria Beckham, Herve Leger, Diane von Furstenberg, and Rachel Roy. Let's see what this diverse group of designers has in store for us. Look for my colleague Kristina O'Neill's take tomorrow; until then, check out our behind-the-scenes video from New York Fashion Week . More on Fashion Week
 

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