Tuesday, June 9, 2009

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Lou Dobbs' Ratings Dip Down Top
Lou Dobbs frowned. It was the night of Friday, June 5, and the CNN anchor was in front of the cameras, reporting the news that President Obama had created a new position in the White House--a so-called "pay czar" who would monitor executive compensation at businesses bailed out by the government.
 
Jonathan Handel: SAG TV/Theatrical Contract Ratified Overwhelmingly, 78%-22% Top
In a stunning defeat for the hardline Membership First faction, SAG's TV/theatrical contract passed overwhelmingly, by a 78%-22% margin (almost 4 to 1), those numbers according to the guild. Variety first reported the story, prior to the guild's announcement, with a 1% difference in the numbers. Significantly, even in the faction's stronghold, the Hollywood division, the vote was an enormous 71% to 29% in favor, or almost 3 to 1. In NY, it was 86% to 14%, and in the regions it was 89% to 11%. There was a large turnout--35% of eligible members voted, far above the typical 20%-25%. The ballots went out to 110,000 paid-up members. It's an amazing end to an almost 12 month stalemate, and calls into question the faction's ability to make any headway in the upcoming SAG board elections. On the contrary, the results suggest that the moderate Unite for Strength faction should make significant gains. That's because only Membership First will be defending seats in Hollywood , whereas no moderates or independents are up for reelection. Thus, the moderates can only gain, at least in Hollywood . In NY and the regions, Membership First has little support, so, there again, the moderates should prevail. Another question is the SAG presidency, which is up this year as well. According to Variety, incumbent president Alan Rosenberg announced today that he'll seek a third term. Given the membership's overwhelming rejection of his vote No position, that may be an uphill climb, especially if the moderates/independents put forward a high-profile candidate, such as James Cromwell, who has been rumored to be considering a run. Below are press releases from SAG, AFTRA and the AMPTP. -------------- Subscribe to my blog ( jhandel.com ) for more about SAG, or digital media law generally. Go to the blog itself to subscribe via RSS or email. Or, follow me on Twitter , friend me on Facebook , or subscribe to my Huffington Post articles. If you work in tech, check out my new book How to Write LOIs and Term Sheets . -------------- SAG Press Release Screen Actors Guild Members Overwhelmingly Ratify TV/Theatrical Agreements Los Angeles , (June 9, 2009) - Screen Actors Guild announced today that members have voted overwhelmingly to approve its TV/Theatrical contracts by a vote of 78 percent to 22 percent. The two-year successor agreement covers film and digital television programs, motion pictures and new media productions. The pact becomes effective at 12:01 a.m. June 10, 2009 and expires June 30, 2011. The contracts provide more than $105 million in wages, increased pension contributions, and other gains and establishes a template for SAG coverage of new media formats. Approximately 110,000 SAG members received ballots of which 35.26 percent returned them - a return that is above average compared with typical referenda on Screen Actors Guild contracts. Integrity Voting Systems of Everett, WA, provided election services and tonight certified the final vote tally upon completion of the tabulation. The vote count in the Hollywood Division was 70.70 percent to 29.30 percent in favor. In the New York Division, the vote count was 85.74 percent to 14.26 percent in favor. And in the Regional Branch Division, the vote count was 89.06 percent to 10.94 percent in favor. Screen Actors Guild President Alan Rosenberg said, "The membership has spoken and has decided to work under the terms of this contract that many of us, who have been involved in these negotiations from the beginning, believe to be devastatingly unsatisfactory. Tomorrow morning I will be contacting the elected leadership of the other talent unions with the hope of beginning a series of pre-negotiation summit meetings in preparation for 2011. I call upon all SAG members to begin to ready themselves for the battle ahead," Rosenberg added. Screen Actors Guild Interim National Executive Director David White said, "This decisive vote gets our members back to work with immediate pay raises and puts SAG in a strong position for the future. Preparation for the next round of negotiations begins now. Our members can expect more positive changes in the coming months as we organize new work opportunities, repair and reinvigorate our relationships with our sister unions and industry partners, and continue to improve the Guild's operations." Screen Actors Guild Chief Negotiator John McGuire said, "I want to thank the SAG members and staff who dedicated their time to the negotiations process. We emerged with a solid deal that the members have now voted up. The negotiating team worked tirelessly, building on the work of the first negotiating committee, to deliver these improvements to members." Screen Actors Guild began talks with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers on April 15, 2008. Guild Chief Negotiator John McGuire, Interim National Executive Director David White, and Deputy National Executive Director for Contracts Ray Rodriguez, working with a 10-person negotiating task force comprised of Screen Actors Guild board members and officers representing the three divisions, reached the tentative agreement on April 16, 2009 after 12 months of periodic negotiations with the motion picture studios and television networks. For further information on the new contract, including the full text and a summary of the agreement, click here. ACTORS RESPOND TO CONTRACT RATIFICATION Tony Shalhoub, actor "This is a great decision for SAG and I'm so appreciative of everything the new leadership is doing to put the Guild back on track. They've obviously got the right ideas for making SAG stronger." Stephen Collins, actor "This contract passed because members knew it was time to take advantage of the gains our negotiators won and get back to work. On top of that, they understood that risking our ability to negotiate alongside AFTRA and the other unions in the 2011 negotiations would have been a huge mistake. It's a great day for SAG." Sam Freed, actor, 2nd National Vice President "This decision by the membership marks the end of a very long process. We can now move forward with a new sense of certainty." Sue-Anne Morrow, actor, National Board Member representing New York "This is a good deal with good gains. SAG's members clearly agree. It's about time we got a raise. I'm so pleased that SAG's members exercised their right to be heard and said 'Yes!'." Mike Hodge, actor, National Board Member representing New York "I am extremely pleased that we have finally come to the close of a long, unproductive period. I am hopeful that we can heal our wounds and really start the work to become a unified, national union." Nancy Duerr, actor, National Board Member representing SAG Florida Branch "This is a victory for SAG performers across our region. Stalled and delayed productions can now get underway, boosting our local economies. This contract not only puts more money in members' pockets, it preserves the high standards of working conditions our members have come to expect." Todd Hissong, actor, Chicago Branch President, National Board Member "By passing this referendum, Chicago members have sent a clear message that we want to get back to work. Screen Actors Guild members across the country have yet again demonstrated our grasp of the issues, the importance of unionism, and our need to stand together with our sister unions to make deals that benefit us all." David Hartley-Margolin, Colorado actor, SAG 3rd Vice President "The membership always has the last word when it comes to contract matters. They have spoken. Their endorsement of the deal with the AMPTP ends the uncertainty that has been hovering over us and allows Screen Actors Guild and the industry to move forward together." -------------- AFTRA Press Release AFTRA President Roberta Reardon Applauds SAG Contract Ratification Los Angeles, CA (June 9, 2009)--In a statement released today, Roberta Reardon, National President of the American Federation of television and Radio Artists (AFTRA), praised the announcement by Screen Actors Guild regarding ratification by SAG members of a new two-year successor agreement to the SAG Basic Agreement and SAG Television Agreement saying: "On behalf of the more than 70,000 members of AFTRA, I congratulate the members of Screen Actors Guild on their successful ratification of a new television and theatrical agreement. We're pleased that SAG members will now enjoy improved wages and working conditions, and we applaud their efforts to negotiate a solid new agreement." -------------- AMPTP Press Release Statement by the AMPTP The ratification vote by SAG members is good news for the entertainment industry. This concludes a two-year negotiating process that has resulted in agreements with all major Hollywood Guilds and Unions. We look forward to working with SAG members - and with everyone else in our industry - to emerge from today's significant economic challenges with a strong and growing business.
 
Kenya Feeling Snubbed By Obama Top
When President Obama took office, ecstatic Kenyans predicted a new era of closer ties between the U.S. and the homeland of Obama's late father. They envisioned increased trade and investment, improved diplomatic relations and the first-ever visit by a sitting U.S. president to Kenya. More on Barack Obama
 
Voight: Obama "Bringing Us To Chaos And Socialism" (VIDEO) Top
Fresh off making headlines for calling President Obama a "false prophet" at a GOP fundraiser, actor Jon Voight appeared on Bill O'Reilly's show Tuesday night to continue pressing his case against Obama. After a quick name-checking of Julius Caesar--as in Obama thinks he is a "soft-spoken Julius Caesar"--Voight got down to business, making the case that Obama is "a fellow who's bringing us to chaos and socialism." [scroll down for the transcript.] O'REILLY: Wow! Here now, Mr. Voight. So what -- what is your essential beef, when you just cut down -- it was a long speech you gave -- with President Obama? What -- what's the main complaint? VOIGHT: Well, it is essentially this, Bill, if I had to break it down. We were warned by Hillary Clinton that he had no experience, that he had no qualifications. We were warned by his now vice president, Joe Biden, he had no experience. So he was a novice. And now we're getting what we could have expected, if we had listened. We have a fellow who's bringing us to chaos and socialism. O'REILLY: I don't see any chaos. In Iraq he's pretty much doing what Bush did. He's keeping the soldiers there. There may be chaos when we start to withdraw, but right now it's... VOIGHT: The chaos I'm speaking of is economic chaos. O'REILLY: OK. But let's stay -- let's stay with foreign policy and we'll get into... VOIGHT: OK. O'REILLY: ...because you made some points about Julius Caesar, wants to convince the world. Obviously, you feel he's naive and idealistic. VOIGHT: Well, I feel he's weak. O'REILLY: You feel he's weak? VOIGHT: Just exactly why we have this muscle-flexing from Korea. Nothing's happening. They... O'REILLY: What would you do, though? I mean, you know, we've talked this over. It's a very tough situation in Korea. VOIGHT: Well, this is -- there must be a response. O'REILLY: What kind of a response? VOIGHT: Well... O'REILLY: See, now we're getting into a really tough area. VOIGHT: No -- are you -- do I have the experience to say something that deeply needs to be said? I have a, you know, a head on my shoulders, and I can think of a few things. But certainly they should be let to know that there are going to be consequences. qu More on Barack Obama
 
Dan Solin: Smart Investor Makeover: Odds Are You are Gambling With Your Investments (Video) Top
Here's a mind twister for you: The odds of flipping a coin and getting a head is obviously 1 out of 2. The odds of getting four heads in a row is 1 out of 16. If you flipped three times and got three heads, what are the odds of getting a fourth head? The answer is still 1 out of 2. Past performance of the coin toss does not affect future probability. The SEC requires mutual funds to indicate that past performance is not indicative of future performance. This does not stop advisors and brokers from touting past performance of "hot" funds to their clients. The failure to fully understand the odds is one of the primary reasons why the average return for most investors is so dismal. In this week's Smart Investor Makeover video I discuss the importance of knowing the odds. In less than three minutes, you could change the way you invest forever. I hope you enjoy it. The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. More on Personal Finance
 
Robert L. Borosage: Wall Street Journal: Throw Citi Under the Bus Top
I stopped reading the Wall Street Journal editorial page when it soared off into wingnuttery, writing tomes on the imaginary conspiracy to off Vince Foster and other fantasies. The news pages remain useful; the editorial page hasn't improved much. But as they say, even a monkey at a typewriter eventually will write something interesting. But on Tuesday, the lead editorial of the Journal -- "Making Failure an Option" made a strong argument. The big banks are lining up to pay back the money Treasury gave them under TARP, after passing the Treasury's softball "stress test." Eager to avoid any restrictions on pay, bonuses or activities, they are rushing to declare their health and independence. The Wall Street Journal would allow them to get out from under the Federal thumb and go free, so long as they give up all the other guarantees and subsidies provided by the government (with the exception of deposit insurance). But this raises the fundamental question - what economists call "moral hazard," only multiplied many times over. These banks have been deemed officially as "too big to fail." When they operate, it is with the implicit backing of the US Treasury. They will be able to borrow money more cheaply as a result, and will be tempted, big time, to take greater risks. Risk and leverage create the potential of bigger bonuses for bankers. But they can gamble with their losses implicitly covered by taxpayers. This is a recipe for renewed catastrophe. There are different ways out of this box. Some, like Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo suggest that "too big to fail" should mean too big to exist, and that the Congress should break up the big banks into smaller, simpler, more transparent entities. Others, like Nobel Prize winner Joe Stiglitz suggest treating banks like public utilities, regulating their activities and fees strictly. Isolate the venture capital function to operate separately, but turn banks back into a version of the savings and loans of the old days. Others, like Paul Krugman and Robert Kuttner, suggest that the big banks should be treated like we treat any banks that are insolvent: take them over, strip away the bad assets, fire the management, reorganize them, merge them or sell the sound bank off at the end of the process. The Treasury Departments under both Bush and Obama decided against taking over and reorganizing the big banks. Instead both chose to subsidize them, and nurse them back to health. Congress and the administration are turning their attention to new regulations for finance, but congressional action won't take place for a while - and initial proposals don't include either a lid on size or turning the big banks into public utilities. Just telling them they are on their own won't work, the WSJ rightly concludes. The markets won't believe it. So the Journal suggests, Why not let one of them fail? And then it nominates Citigroup to be thrown under the bus. "Resolving Citi - by either forcing it into a strategic partnership, if anyone will have it, or selling off its assets and breaking it up - wouldn't be cheap," the WSJ editorialist writes. But it would eliminate one of the leading "zombie" banks, end the "slow bleeding of taxpayer money into the bank," and send the banks a message: you are on your own and we really do mean it. Citibank is essentially already owned by the Federal Government. As the WSJ notes, it has received insurance on $300 billion in deposits, some $63 billion in FDIC-guaranteed debt, and another $300 billion or so in taxpayer guarantees of its toxic assets, $45 billion in direct capital injections, and more. It is, along with Bank of America, the weakest of the major banks. And Citibank has a checkered history of needing bailouts from huge bad bets -- from the time it speculated on Russian bonds on the eve of the Russian revolution to betting on loans to Latin American governments in the 1980s, to needing bailouts twice in the most recent crisis. Treasury has joined with the banks in peddling confidence, so it is unlikely that the editorialist's advice will be taken. But that leaves the question. If the banks are free of the TARP but officially too big to fail, what is to keep them from taking larger and larger gambles with other people's money, knowing that they pocket the profits and taxpayers will cover their losses? You don't have to believe in Vince Foster conspiracies to think this is a question that deserves a straight answer. More on The Bailouts
 
Brad Pitt Hits Up Art Basel, Buys $1 Million Painting (PHOTOS) Top
Brad Pitt popped up in Switzerland on Tuesday at Art Basel. An AP photographer snapped the actor checking out the work "end of knowledge" (24K gold on primed linen, 2008-2009) by US artist Jim Hodges through his aviator shades. According to the WSJ , he then paid nearly $1M for a Neo Rauch rainbow-colored racetrack painting, "Etappe" On Monday Pitt was in Washington DC having lunch with partner Angelina Jolie. PHOTOS: Follow HuffPo Entertainment On Twitter! More on Photo Galleries
 
Mike Tyson Marries Lakiha Spicer In Vegas Top
LAS VEGAS — Boxer Mike Tyson has married for a third time, two weeks after his 4-year-old daughter died in a tragic treadmill accident. The owner of the La Bella Wedding Chapel at the Las Vegas Hilton hotel-casino told The Associated Press on Tuesday that the former heavyweight champion and his bride, Lakiha Spicer, exchanged vows Saturday in a short, private ceremony. Chapel owner Shawn Absher says the couple wed about 10 p.m. after arriving at the hotel from the Clark County marriage bureau in a chapel-owned limousine. County marriage records in Las Vegas show the 42-year-old Tyson and 32-year-old Spicer got a marriage license about 30 minutes before their ceremony. Tyson's daughter Exodus died in May. The girl suffocated after she either slipped or put her head in the loop of a cord hanging under a treadmill's console in her Phoenix home. Tyson's agent, Harlan Werner, told the AP that Spicer is not Exodus' mother. Tyson and Spicer, a resident of suburban Henderson, asked for a simple ceremony with nothing special, Absher said. "They just wanted to say the vows and be married," he said. "It was very sincere." Tyson was previously married to actress Robin Givens in 1988 and Monica Turner in 1997. His first marriage ended after one year after Givens filed for divorce and said in a nationally televised interview that she was afraid of Tyson. His marriage to Turner lasted five years. Tyson and Spicer seemed very in love, Absher said. "They were very heartwarming, and I think they really do love each other," Absher said. "He seemed happy _ and his life's been up and down." Tyson last boxed competitively in 2005. More on Sports
 
Kelly Rutherford's Estranged Husband: I Wasn't Notified Of Daughter's Birth Top
The ill will from a divorce and custody battle with Kelly Rutherford has now apparently reached into the hospital delivery room. The Gossip Girl star welcomed her second child, daughter Helena, on Monday, but the actress's estranged husband, German entrepreneur Daniel Giersch, tells PEOPLE he was never notified of the birth, and instead read about it in online reports, some unfavorable toward him. More on Gossip Girl
 
Tim Burton To Get MoMA Exhibit Top
The visually inventive filmmaker behind "Edward Scissorhands," "Batman" and "Sweeney Todd," among others, will be the subject of "Tim Burton," a major exhibition at Gotham's Museum of Modern Art beginning Nov. 22 and running through April 26. The show will include more than 700 pieces: paintings, drawings, storyboards, maquettes, puppets and other work created or designed by Burton. MoMA will also screen a complete retrospective of the helmer's 14 films over the course of the show.
 
Ahmed Shihab-Eldin: Youth in Lebanon Launch Newspaper Challenging Politics and Media (VIDEO) Top
In Lebanon, where divisions dominate both the political and media spectrum, a new and independent youth newspaper, is shaking up the status-quo. Sawt Ashabab, which translates to "Youth Voice" in Arabic, began as part of a media literacy project, but has evolved into the successful launch of an independent media organization challenging the country's polarized media landscape. Watch video below: Click to play The newspaper, founded by Dima Saber, a professor of media studies at Lebanon's Notre Dame University, and David Munir Nabti, CEO of RootSpace, an organization that works towards a sustainable, knowledge-based economy and society in Lebanon. The first edition was launched to coincide with Lebanon's recent highly anticipated elections, pitting the US and Saudi backed March 14 bloc (which won) against the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance backed by Syria and Iran. In a matter of a just a few weeks, Saber had gathered dozens of young volunteers from across Lebanon - many under Lebanon's 21-year-old voting age - who represent Lebanon's political, ethnic and religious divided. The paper offers a sometimes cynical, though, informed commentary on Lebanese politics and society and the first edition was distributed in more than 50,000 copies of the two leading dailies, Al Akhbar and Al Nahar - each on opposite sides of the political spectrum. Sawt Ashabab taps into the frustration that many young Lebanese have with their standard of living, rampant unemployment and the cyclical nature of dirty politics. The newspaper, written in Arabic and English, challenges all parties, mocking campaign ads, and even criticizing the parties' voter outreach initiatives which included flying in thousands of Lebanese citizens living abroad to participate in the elections. While the future of Sawt Ashabab and Lebanon's political scene remains unclear, the successful launch of the newspaper reflects the possibility of change when determination and diversity is celebrated. More on Newspapers
 
Blago To Appear In Own Spoof Show "Rod Blagojevich Superstar" Top
Second City's Rod Blagojevich satire has been so succesful that it's run is being extended and the show's disgraced inspiration is going to participate, the Tribune 's Chris Jones reports . The actual former governor has inked a deal with the show to announce its extended run and take part in the improv performance that follows the show, Kelly Leonard, the show's producer told the Tribune . Leonard would not reveal the terms of the deal, but said that some of Saturday night's ticket sales will go to the Gilda's Club charity. The AP's full article on the show's extension: Rod Blagojevich is the gift that keeps giving to Chicago comedians. Second City's musical comedy about the rise and fall of Illinois' disgraced former governor was supposed to end June 14. But production coordinator Monica Wilson says it's been extended to Aug. 9 because performances keep selling out. She adds that another factor was that Blagojevich himself keeps providing fresh comedic material. The spoof, called "Rod Blagojevich Superstar," is a takeoff on the rock opera "Jesus Christ Superstar." One of the comedy's songs is an expletive-laden version of "I Don't Know How to Love Him." The show opened in February just after Illinois legislators removed Blagojevich from office for allegedly trying to sell Barack Obama's vacant U.S. Senate seat. More on Rod Blagojevich
 
Obama's Trip, Behind The Scenes (SLIDESHOW) Top
If, like most people, you've ever wondered what Reggie Love would look like on a camel, here's your chance to find out! The White House released behind-the-scenes photos of President Barack Obama's recent trip to the Middle East in Europe, including camel rides, German snacks, and what appear to be very bored White House staffers on a plane. And, of course, Obama in a funny hat. Watch the slideshow: More on Obama's Mideast Trip
 
Supreme Court Clears Way For Sale Of Chrysler To Fiat Top
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Tuesday cleared the way for Chrysler LLC's sale to Fiat, turning down a last-ditch appeal by opponents that included consumer groups and three Indiana pension plans. The court rejected a plea to block the sale of most of Chrysler's assets to the Italian automaker. Chrysler, Fiat and the Obama administration had warned that the high court's intervention could have scuttled the sale. A federal appeals court in New York had earlier approved the sale, but gave opponents until Monday afternoon to try to get the Supreme Court to intervene. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg ordered a temporary delay just before a 4 p.m. deadline on Monday. A little more than 24 hours later, the court freed the automakers to complete their deal. The opponents include a trio of Indiana pension plans, consumer groups and individuals with product-related lawsuits. The court issued a brief, unsigned opinion explaining its action. To obtain a delay, or stay, someone must show that at least four of the nine justices find that the issue raised is serious enough to warrant hearing a full appeal and that a majority of the court will conclude the lower court decision was wrong. "The applicants have not carried that burden," the court said. Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock expressed disappointment with the decision and said options seem limited for opponents of the sale. "Obviously the supreme court of the land is the supreme court of the land," Mourdock said. "The United States government has, I continue to believe, acted egregiously by taking away the traditional rights held by secured creditors." The White House issued a statement applauding the decision: "The Chrysler-Fiat alliance can now go forward, allowing Chrysler to re-emerge as a competitive and viable automaker." The challenge was filed by the Indiana pension funds and other investors who claimed the sale unfairly favored Chrysler's unsecured stakeholders ahead of secured debtholders like themselves. Chrysler has been working to complete the sale of its assets to Fiat before a June 15 deadline, a key element in its restructuring plans. Early Tuesday, the pension plans seized on comments from Fiat officials that they would not walk away from the deal even if June 15 were to pass without completing the sale. The plans tried to persuade the justices that there was no reason to rush to meet that deadline. But Chrysler, Fiat and the Obama administration stressed in response that Chrysler was losing $100 million a day and that the deal automatically terminates in less than a week, with no guarantee that a new agreement would be reached. The court did not consider the merits of the opponents' arguments, only whether to hear their full-blown appeal. Also on Tuesday, Chrysler returned to bankruptcy court to get approval to terminate 789 dealer franchises. More than 25 attorneys representing hundreds of dealers from across the country opposed Chrysler's request, arguing that little would be gained by ending the franchises. The company said the move was a necessary part of its plan to cut costs and quickly emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Many of the dealers were selling the last cars on their lots and preparing to shut their doors for good at the end of the day, while others planned to sell used cars or other brands after severing ties with Chrysler. More on Supreme Court
 
Johann Hari: The Three Ticking Time Bombs Under British Politics Top
Last Thursday the British public queued at their polling stations to quietly and politely lay three ticking bombs under British politics. If we don't hear the tick-tock and steadily defuse the voters' anger, the eventual blasts will damage Britain for decades to come. The first shelf-full of Semtex was aimed at the Prime Minister. I hate talking about politics in terms of personalities, and I find the vindictive tone towards Gordon Brown - booing him at a D-Day commemoration? - unpleasant. But we can't live in a fantasy world. Brown has turned out to be electoral kryptonite. Labour has just taken its lowest share of the vote since 1910, before the First World War - and if it keeps on marching in the same jerky formation, it is heading for a political Somme. The reasons why the Brown stuff has hit the fan have to be understood properly. The attempts to take Brown down have come almost exclusively from the Blairite wing of the Labour Party - people like Stephen Byers, Hazel Blears and Charles Clarke. They have always thought Brown was too left-wing, and now grasp for his few tiny millimetre-shuffles towards social democracy as explanation for his failure. But this is surreal. Gordon Brown has failed because he has been paralysed, unable to take any substantial decisions at all - except to keep drifting in a Blairite direction. With the honourable exception of using the state to stop the banks collapsing, he has carried on with hardline Blairism: building more airports, trying to part-privatise the Post Office, and apologising profusely to millionaires for his meager tax rise, even though 68 per cent of the public support it. In reality, he has failed because of a double-whammy: he has continued with lousy and unpopular right-wing policies, and he sells them appallingly. If he remains as Labour leader, he will hand the country to the Conservative leader David Cameron, who will dismantle the few good left-wing policies that snuck through New Labour - tax credits, SureStart (our equivalent to HeadStart), Educational Maintenance Allowances to help poor kids stay on at school. The Independent's poll shows that another Labour figure, Alan Johnson, can stop the hemorrhaging and confine Cameron to a hung parliament, where he will be able to do far less damage. Labour would need more commitments from Johnson that he will respond to the recession-heavy mood for greater social democracy - but it would be an act of political self-harm to stay with Brown. It is sad for his political career to end like this, but it will be much sadder to be poor in a Cameron-led Britain. In the name of Gord, go. The second bomb came crashing in from the extreme right - the British National Party - which now has two Members of the European Parliament, both with records of extreme bigotry. Its leader Nick Griffin has palled about with David Duke and bragged about how much he learned from Adolf Hitler's Mein Kampf, while as a young man Andrew Brons joined the National Socialist Movement, set up on Hitler's birthday as a tribute to him. But it is not the case that 10 per cent of people in Yorkshire are sympathetic to Holocaust-denying lunatics. No: they were overwhelmingly broke young white men who would, a generation ago, have formed the Labour core vote. They are angry about low wages and chronic shortage of housing - and simply telling them they are bigots won't get us very far. Any conversation with BNP voters has to begin by agreeing that they are right to be angry about both subjects. There is a housing scandal in Britain today. In the 1980s, the revenues from council house sales were squandered by Margaret Thatcher on tax cuts for the rich, instead of being used to build more social housing. Labour allowed social housing construction to fall even further. We now have a housing drought, leaving hundreds of thousands of people stuck in cramped, damp homes. Similarly, our minimum wage is one of the lowest in the developed world. Tax credits are good, but today they only go to people with families: the rest watch their wages sink. Only once this is agreed should the conversation move on to the fact there is a more effective and more deserving outlet for their rage than other poor people with different pigmentation. The white working class has a shared interest with black and Asian people in demanding higher taxes on the wealthy - and less squandering of cash on pointless projects like Trident and ID. cards - to lift up everyone stuck at the bottom. But what mainstream party has advocated that for years? In the absence of any socialism, we will see its antithesis, National Socialism, rise as a nasty intimidating fringe. If we want to choke this off, we need to deal with the real issues it feeds on. The third bomb is the rising rejection of the European Union. We have now reached a point where Britain's governing party has been beaten by an organisation whose sole purpose is to yank us out of the EU. This undercurrent is tugging at the entire political system: the British Conservatives in the European Parliament are now withdrawing from their alliance with Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and the rest of the European centre-right, and cobbling together a coalition of Polish gay-bashers, Czech global warming deniers, and assorted Europe-hating loons to sit with. Cameron's Tories would form the most anti-European government in living memory: they even voted against European co-operation to track down child molesters. How long can we spit at the 450-million-strong trading block on our borders, with which we do 60 percent of our business, before it has consequences? How long can we try to kick out the foundations of unprecedented peace in Europe before it begins to crack? This can't go on. The Liberal Democrats - a third party who are a lonely, brave British voice in defence of Europe - have been arguing for years that we need a rerun of the 1975 referendum: should we stay or should we go? The arguments for Europe - and the real cost of leaving - would be drawn into the open. The case would become clear at last. Since the majority of Britain's trade is with the EU, after withdrawing the country would have to abide by almost all its rules anyway to be allowed to sell to them - but it wouldn't have any influence on drawing them up. Think of it as the United Kingdom Isolation Party, where the UK won't even be on the sidelines; we'd be outside the stadium, on an empty street. So Brits would gain little, but we would suffer horrible self-inflicted wounds. Three million jobs would melt away to a Europe that would now be wrapped away behind tariff walls. The millions of Brits living elsewhere in the EU - one million in Spain alone - would be left stranded, and have to come home, or apply for immigration rights they were no longer entitled to. Britain's ability to shape the future of the world, especially on global warming and foreign affairs, would be dramatically diminished. Our ability to reform the very real flaws within the EU would be gone. And we would have helped to bring down an extraordinary political project that shows the world that even the most bloody and war-ravaged continent can pool its sovereignty and live together in peace. The British electorate just booted Brown, brown-shirt nostalgists and browning-off Europe to the top of Britain's agenda. The ticking will only get louder if we try to brush these bombs under the Westminster carpet - and carry on as if the people have not spoken. Johann Hari is a writer for the Independent. To read more of his articles, click here or here.
 

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