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• Tall People Earn Higher Wages: Study
• Martha Burk: Weak on Women's Rights at Notre Dame
• Patricia Zohn: Culture Zohn: Leonard Cohen, Troubadour of Love
• Rob Richie: Good Things Come to Those Who Rank: Campaign finance, political dialogue and instant runoff voting
• Maureen Dowd Plagiarism? Josh Marshall Lines Appear To Be Lifted
• Nanette Lepore: Save the Garment Center
• Economic Stress Map Outlines Recession's Stories
• Dan Dorfman: Only Five More Months of Economic Hell?
• Bill Press: Obama Wins One For the Gipper
• Bryan Young: Gov. Huntsman (R-UT) Goes to China
• Paul Raushenbush: Barack Obama's (and America's) Victory at Notre Dame
• David Wild: Justin Timberlake: Pop Culture's Smartest Guy In The Room
• Sean L. McCarthy: The SNL FAQ: Season Finale (Will Ferrell)

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Tall People Earn Higher Wages: Study	Top
MELBOURNE (AFP) -- Tall people earn higher wages than their vertically-challenged counterparts while being obese does not mean a slimmed-down pay packet, according to a new study in Australia.
Martha Burk: Weak on Women's Rights at Notre Dame	Top
A few minutes before President Obama's commencement speech at Notre Dame, the CNN anchor was intoning that he supports stem cell research and he supports abortion rights, and that he would not shrink from his positions on either. In fact, she said, he was going to use an email he had gotten on the subject of abortion as part of his remarks. Good, I thought. It will be from the parent of the mentally retarded high school student who was gang raped, the doctor of an 11 year old incest victim, or possibly a woman with four kids already whose husband has just lost his job and medical benefits along with it. Boy, was I wrong. The letter Obama cited in great detail was from an anti-choice doctor who had taken him to task for a statement on his campaign website saying he would fight "right-wing ideologues who want to take away a woman's right to choose." The president was quick to point out that while he had not changed his fundamental position (though he declined to reiterate it), he had instructed his staff to alter the wording, presumably so that "ideologue" no longer appeared. The rest of the speech, insofar as a woman's most fundamental right to control her own body was concerned, was a big fat silence. Leading off with "Maybe we won't agree on abortion, but we can still agree that this is a heart-wrenching decision for any woman to make, with both moral and spiritual dimensions," the president detailed all the ways we can reduce abortions. He mentioned adoption, support for women who choose to carry their pregnancies to term, and crafting a "sensible conscience clause" (whatever that means) for health care providers as well as "health care policies grounded in clear ethics and sound science, as well as respect for the equality of women." Coming from a pro-choice president who was elected by women - including a significant number of defectors from their rabidly anti-choice Republican party - it was faint support indeed. Instead of merely asking us to agree that abortion is a heart-wrenching decision (we all do anyway), why not ask us to agree on the fundamental moral agency of women? Why not ask us to agree that government should not interfere in a woman's most basic right to autonomy in controlling her life? If he wants to follow that with a statement about reducing the need for abortion, I'll be with him all the way. But the president didn't do that. After brushing quickly by respect for the equality of women (and only in the health care context), he went on to extend an invitation to the anti-choice audience to engage in dialogue, where "differences of culture and religion and conviction can co-exist with friendship, civility, hospitality, and especially love." That all sounds great, but if the president buys the idea that those who would outlaw abortion and send women back to the back alleys are not ideologues, and that they want to co-exist in civil disagreement, he's naive at the very best. And he diminishes women in the bargain. Make no mistake. I support President Obama. I think for the most part he's doing a great job. I know he's pro-choice. But I need to know he is not afraid to say unequivocally that he supports the fundamental rights of his daughters and my granddaughters as strongly as he supports so-called open dialogue and debate. He needs to say it out loud, with conviction and without apology. If they hear that, the women of the world will stand and applaud much longer and much harder than any crowd at Notre Dame. More on Women's Rights
Patricia Zohn: Culture Zohn: Leonard Cohen, Troubadour of Love	Top
It was while waiting on line at the will call behind a thirtysomething female bass player in a rock band and her composer boyfriend that I realized that Leonard Cohen was still speaking to all those who seek answers to the impenetrables. The couple told me their fathers had turned them on to Cohen, but that they felt if he recorded a new album today it would be every bit as worthy. I had put my 1973 Leonard Cohen Live Songs album in pride of place on the mantel, the one with the black and white picture of him smoking and communed with it (before the sold out Radio City Music Hall concert) and the youthful longing he so deftly channeled for so many of us. Known recently for his spiritual artwork and for being Madoffed before Bernie even hit the Street by a voracious business manager, Cohen went back on the concert circuit because he was plum broke. At the Music Hall last night, you would have never known that either Cohen or his adoring fans, young and old, had an economic worry in the world. The hushed, deco carpeted hall proved a serene and majestic venue for Cohen, the perfect get away from it all that everybody seems to want. But to where? As he himself acknowledged midway through the set, there's really nowhere to hide anymore. Image courtesy of Avi Gerver Cohen sang his standards and more, often beginning each one kneeling, his own homage to his deeply felt work, his signature fedora rakishly tilted at first to totally obscure his expression and then after intermission, to reveal the craggy, wise troubadour. There was even a whiff of the Chairman of the Board, Sinatra himself, who often used a hat too as a way to woo his audience. But were his eyes mostly closed at the outset so he couldn't see how many of us had aged? People were bobbing and swaying, some mouthing the words, or singing under their breath, almost as if they were chanting with a guru. On my right were two people who appeared older than me, on my left much younger. He is someone who still captures longing. The set was tame and melodic, his version of backup singers more harmonic than Harlettes, his musicians, other than the marvelous guitar player from Barcelona, correct rather than passionate. But they were just following their charming leader. I'm sure that Cohen at the Beacon had the intimacy that this performance lacked, but since other than Mick Jagger, I haven't been to a rock-ish concert in years it all felt a bit surreal. Cohen still has the bedroom voice, the luscious, sexy Everybody Knows, no pyrotechnics needed instrument that has taught us about transfiguration and transformation and transmutation. But the post-minimal, hat -doffing delivery sometimes worked against the poetry, the former angst about misplaced love replaced by a serenity that made all those years of using him as a totem for our unrequitedness almost suspect. Was this the same guy who had hold of our tortured hearts? If it hadn't been for the father who brought his restless little boy with him in front of me or the drunken fan who was forcibly ejected two thirds of the way through for starting a fight, I would have slipped slightly into somnolence. As it was, the reverence felt right, somehow. The Troubadours were known for their lyricism and intelligence and we could not have a finer standard bearer. Hallelujah.
Rob Richie: Good Things Come to Those Who Rank: Campaign finance, political dialogue and instant runoff voting	Top
My colleague Paul Fidalgo and I circulated this recently. If these sorts of analyses are of interest, see ou r archive and consider subscribing . Facts in Focus * Rate of valid ballots cast in last two mayoral elections with IRV, in Aspen (CO) and Burlington (VT): Greater than 99.99% (one ballot error out of more than 11,400 cast) * How winners in these elections ranked in terms of fundraising among their opponents: Aspen: 2nd of four. Burlington: 4th of five. * Number of Aspen elections with higher turnout than 2009 election: 0 In a Nutshell Instant runoff voting is a ranked choice voting system that allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference. Recommended by Robert's Rules of Order for postal elections and used in a rapidly growing number of elections here and abroad, it represents a major improvement over the usual plurality-based and two-round systems of voting. It protects majority rule, eliminates the need for costly extra elections and all but eradicates the potential chaos of "spoiler" candidacies. But beyond its clearly established benefits, we are seeing anecdotal evidence that suggests that IRV has a positive effect on the influence of big money on elections, and mitigating the temptation for campaigns to "go negative." Our Full Analysis In all well-intentioned attempts to reform our electoral system, the primary goal is fairness: finding mechanisms allowing all eligible voters to have a better chance to participate and be represented. When those criteria are satisfied, we think that government becomes more accountable and more honestly reflects the will of the voters. But sometimes we can be pleasantly surprised when a change designed to improve the political system in a broad sense also turns out to have other desirable effects beyond the initial intentions. This is exactly what we're seeing with the growing implementation of instant runoff voting (IRV) in municipalities across the country. With IRV, voters have one vote, but are allowed to indicate their backup choices in the event that their favorite candidate lacks enough support to win. After voters rank candidates on a ranked choice ballot, the first-choice rankings are tabulated. If no candidate wins a majority (50% plus one), a series of "instant runoffs" take place. The weakest candidates are eliminated and ballots for that candidate are added to the totals of the remaining candidates until one candidate earns more than half the votes. The winner is the majority, consensus choice. (Minnesota Public Radio recently did a charming video demonstration of IRV in action using Post-It notes, which you can watch here. ) A successful IRV election was held in Aspen, Colorado last week (the city's first IRV election), in which incumbent mayor Mick Ireland defeated three challengers in a contest with a record-breaking turnout; 45% versus the usual 37-38%. Analysis of the election by TrueBallot showed that every single vote cast for mayor was valid, meaning 100% of those who opted to vote for mayor had their vote count. There were more voter errors in the novel use of IRV to elect two at-large city council seats, but still less than 1% of those at the polls. Also notable were the fundraising figures. Challenger Marilyn Marks outspent Ireland, breaking Aspen records with almost $40,000 in funds. Ireland mustered less than half of Marks' total, with less than $18,000 raised. Despite this disparity in resources, Ireland emerged victorious. The biggest spender in the city council race also was defeated in an election in which the two incumbents were upended. We knew IRV helped level the campaign finance playing field when avoiding costly runoffs, as would have happened previously in Aspen. We didn't anticipate an impact within single elections, but here's why there might be a connection. In a typical campaign, campaign money is often spent attacking one's major opponent through ads. That tactic assumes the "zero sum" logic of a two-person race in which every vote lost by an opponent helps you by default. But with IRV, voters are more likely to have more than two choices. Candidates have a greater motivation to make an affirmative case to earn support because negative attacks may hurt another candidate without helping you. Because voters get the option to rank their preferences, candidates also have a new incentive to make their case to backers of other candidates Negative attacks perceived to be unfair are particularly counter-productive if the candidate on the receiving end loses early in the counting and that candidate's backers punish the attacker by ranking other candidates higher on their ballot. Attacks will still be leveled at opponents in IRV elections, particularly when there is a clear frontrunner as was the case in Aspen, but overall IRV encourages more positive, substantive campaigns in which candidates try to earn first-choice support from opponents while remaining attractive to other candidates' supporters. The Aspen Times weighed in after the election, writing, "[We] have been impressed with the professionalism displayed...[C]andidates have treated each other respectfully during these stressful times." Let's take a look at another example. Earlier this year in Burlington, Vermont, the Progressive Party's Bob Kiss was re-elected as mayor, vaulting from second place after the first count in an IRV election to win with 51% against Republican state legislator Kurt Wright. Just as in his initial upset win in 2006, when he was outspent by approximately four to one by a Democratic state senator, Kiss was heavily outspent by his three main opponents. All three wielded larger war chests, including Wright who spent twice as much as Kiss. But once again money seemed to mean less when negative attacks aren't useful. Burlington's candidates participated in forums across the city, and, in part due to IRV, spent little time debasing each other. The positive, substantive tenor of the campaign even won IRV some new converts of past skeptics such as Democratic city councilor Bill Keogh who told the Burlington Free Press, "This campaign has been very, very good," and that the four leading candidates had been "as forthright as they can be with their views. This is the most respectful and informative campaign in Burlington in a long time." Obviously, in the Aspen and Burlington cases the mayoral victors had the benefit of incumbency despite their deficits in cash. But they also showcase a trend that is emerging in IRV races across the country. Similar results have been seen in San Francisco, which has used IRV for city elections every November since 2004. Numerous highly competitive races have gone to candidates who were outspent, including several neighborhood-based candidates targeted by downtown business in the 2008 elections. The editor of the San Francisco Bay Guardian in 2008 wrote that in the highly contested open seat race for District 9 on the Board of Supervisors: "[The winner] will probably be the one who gets the most second-place [rankings]. So it's in everyone's interest not to go negative. If Sanchez, say, started to attack Quezada, the Quezada backers would get mad and leave Sanchez off their ballots -- and that would hurt Sanchez when the second-place votes are counted. So everyone has been pretty well behaved in [District 9]. I've heard a few whispers here and there, and a few people have tossed off a few nasty comments, but overall the candidates and their supporters recognize that it's better to stay positive." Indeed, the winner was in fact one of those candidates that embraced the idea of forging alliances over burning bridges. One result of this is that with every member now elected through IRV, the city's Board is far more diverse and community-based than ever in its history. Its 11 members include three Asians, two Latinos, one African-American and one Iranian-American. This is not a definitive, scientific case study proving beyond a doubt that IRV will always negate the advantages of money or unfailingly produce smiley-faced campaigns. But what is certain is that because candidates must appeal beyond their die-hard supporters in order to rank highly on as many ballots as possible, the efficacy of negativity becomes at best highly questionable, while reasoned, substantive debate and coalition-building become far more attractive. And when discussion is valued over destruction, the relentless raising and spending of campaign funds can be less decisive. In our view, IRV is already a significant improvement simply on its technical merits alone. But if it can also produce such positive byproducts -- even only occasionally -- it only serves to make a good idea even better. A Timely Quote: How American Idol is like IRV: "Despite never having been among the bottom-three vote-getters this season, Danny [Gokey] wound up on the short end of 88 million votes Wednesday night, which eliminated him from the competition. With only a million votes separating Kris and Adam this week, Danny's sizable voting bloc could still influence the outcome. Will his supporters throw their weight behind dark-horse-turned-contender Kris? Or will they stay away from the phones? The answer to that question could determine your next American Idol." - Brian Mansfield, in May 14 story for USA Today, "'American Idol': Danny voted off; Kris and Adam are final 2." Previous editions of Innovative Analysis can be found here. See recent news coverage, including new FairVote-authored op-eds in the Baltimore Sun and San Diego Union-Tribune . Related Blog Posts FairVote has been blogging on recent instant runoff voting elections, including: * Charlottesville, Virginia: A first use of instant runoff voting in a privately-financed "firehouse primary" that had a record turnout and a shaking-up of the political establishment. * Aspen, Colorado: Blogs on the results and the city's new system developed for the two at-large seats on city council. * Burlington, Vermont: Blogs about the elections overall and answers to questions about the elections. Related Facts * Between 1994 and 2008, 113 out of 116 federal primary runoffs have seen drop-offs in turnout from the first election. IRV solves this problem by eliminating the need for poorly-attended runoffs. See our report here. * Today, 51 American colleges and universities are using IRV for their student elections. See the full list here. More on American Idol
Maureen Dowd Plagiarism? Josh Marshall Lines Appear To Be Lifted	Top
New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd is being accused of plagiarizing from Talking Point Memo's Josh Marshall. This afternoon, a blogger named Joshua (not Marshall) at TPM Cafe claimed that a paragraph in Dowd's Sunday column matches a paragraph from Josh Marshall's story that appeared on TPM last Thursday. Dowd wrote : More and more the timeline is raising the question of why, if the torture was to prevent terrorist attacks, it seemed to happen mainly during the period when the Bush crowd was looking for what was essentially political information to justify the invasion of Iraq. Marshall wrote: More and more the timeline is raising the question of why, if the torture was to prevent terrorist attacks, it seemed to happen mainly during the period when we were looking for what was essentially political information to justify the invasion of Iraq. Blogger Joshua notes that the only difference is that Dowd changed "we were" to "the Bush crowd was." And he concludes: So, if this isn't outright plagiarism by a top NY Times Editorialist, than I'm a happily married, straight man with 4 kids, 2 dogs, a lovely 2nd wife of 15 years with a girl half my age on the side. Which I assure you all, I am not . Dowd, a spokesperson for the Times, and Marshall have not returned emails for comment.
Nanette Lepore: Save the Garment Center	Top
When I grew up, if we needed a house, we built it. My Italian grandfather was a bricklayer and my Irish grandfather a carpenter. Grandpa Lepore and his brothers built homes and motels; laying the brick with fine precision. Grandpa McGarry built all the furniture I grew up with, inspired by the best in Scandinavian design at my mother's request. My grandparents immigrated to America and like immigrants often do, they brought their craft with them, and our country was enriched by it. When I was in high school, my parents decided to build their dream house, modern and expansive, in a rural area of Youngstown, Ohio. That summer, my brother and sister helped build the house with my father, his brothers, Raymond and Henry, Grandpa Lepore, Uncle Joe, and various relatives that would make an appearance to work their area of expertise. The house of cedar had as the centerpiece an amazingly beautiful brick wall of rustic, oversized bricks salvaged from an old steel refractory. They were all craftsmen at work with a legacy of pride in creating. Toward the end, when the house was roughed in, Grandpa McGarry and his son, Bob, installed beautiful oak cabinets that had been built at Grandpa's workshop. He even designed an intricate parquet for behind the cabinets, like the surprise of a beautiful lining in a coat. That summer I didn't go to the building site very often, choosing instead to stay at home and sew. It was a form of rebellion against moving to what I perceived to be a backwater country school. Now as an adult I realize that all the heart and skill that went into building our home made it a place to be proud of! I often think about the impact my family craftsmanship had on me. It gave me the tools I need to create and be fearless without limitations. Knowing that one has the potential to build something from a pile of raw materials is empowering. It's a gift that our children might not receive. Eighty percent of my products are made in America in a 10 block radius from my office in New York City's Garment Center. They are assembled by skilled craftsmen who also immigrated here with a trade just like my family. I treasure being able to watch my product develop from a roll of fabric into a beautiful garment hanging in a shop. That garment was designed in my studio on 35th street, the pattern digitized on 38th street, then passed to a cutter around the corner, then bins of cut work trundled to a factory on 39th street, to then be sewn together. All the while each step being closely monitored by my staff. My company alone keeps about 10 factories busy. Those factories make up about 300 jobs in New York City. However, the landlords, the restaurant and hotel union, and the developers want to annihilate our 100 year old Garment Center. Their vision is one sprawling, mall-type maze, from Time Square to Macy's. The homogenizing and "mall-i-fying" of our city continues. The landlords are pushing hard against the city to free up the New York City Garment Center zoning. But what of the pride of a nation that can create its own goods? What of the fate of the designers, manufacturers and tradesmen who set up shop in the Garment Center? Who decides these businesses are not important? Fashion and it's spin offs are important to the NYC economy. There has never been a more critical time to buy American made products. Let's show the politicians that we are invested in saving our country's manufacturing system! Send your comments to Mayor Bloomberg's office . Take a stand!
Economic Stress Map Outlines Recession's Stories	Top
Through the voices of its people, the map shouts. From Atlanta, Ga., listen to Marian Chamberlain _ 65, jobless, and no longer eligible for unemployment: "I will never be able to retire." From Shakopee, Minn., listen to Bruce Paul, 56, a vintage car mechanic laid off in January and unemployed for the first time since Richard Nixon was president. Today he and his wife spend their days in the public library to reduce energy costs at home. "You go out and they say, you know, you need a resume. And I say, `A resume? What's that?'" From Broomfield, Colo., listen to U.S. Marine and construction worker Simon Todt, 27, a combat-arms specialist who returned from three tours in Iraq only to be laid off from his construction job in December. He smiles wanly as he sums up his situation: "There's not a big calling in the civilian world for explosives." The republic is brimming with Americans like these. And the Associated Press Economic Stress Map helps us find their voices and tell their stories. For generations, maps have told tales that words and numbers alone cannot. Maps guided us to the New World, helped us navigate from its edges into its interior. Vague, undefined maps showed Lewis & Clark where to go next _ and in turn gave us fresher, more accurate maps that fueled further explorations. Maps outlined the frontier for settlement and showed us where to find the silver, the gold and the coal that made us prosperous. Computer mapping helps businesses expand, prosper and find new customers. The interactive Stress Map offers insight into the American recession, translating it into misery and geography using an equation, the Stress Index, that shows us _ state by state, county by county _ just how uncertain and battered around we actually are. It takes the numbers, the pronouncements, the big plans for recovery and illustrates what they mean on Main Street USA, or what passes for it in 21st-century American communities. The Stress Index synthesizes three complex sets of ever-evolving data. By factoring in monthly numbers for foreclosure, bankruptcy and _ most painfully _ unemployment, the AP has assembled a numeral that reflects the comparative pain each American county is feeling during these dark economic days. Here are some fleeting examples of what the Stress Index tells us: _The current recession spread like an epidemic from isolation to ubiquity, marching from sequestered pockets of foreclosure to a nationwide explosion of misery as unemployment overtook foreclosures as the dominant misfortune of this recession. _Places with technology-based economies were recession-proof for a while but aren't now. _Places with large numbers of government jobs _ state capitals, university towns, communities with concentrations of hospitals _ remain fairly recession-proof. These are places like Columbia, Mo.; Madison, Wis.; the Raleigh, N.C., area; and Athens, Ga. _State government is not hurting that much _ at least, not yet. _The regions we look to for our traditional sources of energy, for our coal and oil _ Wyoming, West Virginia and the like _ have generally not been hit as hard. _While bankruptcy declarations are happening everywhere, they tend to be higher in the South because of such things as low wages, state laws that give power to creditors and a culture that's more familiar with the bankruptcy option. _Among counties with 25,000-plus residents, no place has been hit harder than Elkhart County, Ind., and that 15 of the 20 American counties hit hardest by the recession in the past year are in six states _ Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee. The Stress Index is not merely a map of misery, though. When recovery comes, it can be a map of optimism as well, a welcome harbinger of better days approaching. Going forward, it can track the recovery we hunger for _ show us where it is poking its head up, where it is spreading and who it is leaving behind. The map, and the numbers behind it, cannot tell us everything. No single number can track Americans' net worth, no monthly barometer indicates the pain factor of people who lost retirement funds, whose stocks vanished out from under them, who dutifully set aside nest eggs that now amount to little or nothing. But it can help compare and contrast places, then find the people who breathe life into the numbers that characterize their regions and their hometowns. It can illustrate emerging trends _ why are certain areas starting to recover while others are lagging behind? _ and offer early hints to where the tightness of economic stress might be starting to loosen. Where can we go with this map? It can carry us to Los Gatos, Calif., one of the high-tech regions that seemed to be escaping the worst of the recession but is now clawing to keep pace. It can point us toward Champaign, Ill., an example of the trend that communities with government institutions tend to be more recession-proof than other places. It can highlight Burlington, N.C., where the manufacturing jobs that disappeared might never be coming back, and Myrtle Beach, S.C., where unemployment and foreclosures have locals wondering when the dividends of the American vacation economy will shine upon them once more. There was a time, not so long ago, when the problem was that we didn't have enough information. Now, you can argue, we have too much _ dizzyingly so. And instead of being tasked with accumulating enough data to understand our world, now we spend our jumbled days shuffling through the information that's out there, struggling to make sense of it and harness it to improve our lives. For the immediate future, the AP Economic Stress Map will attempt to do just that for the United States. AP reporters will be fanning out across the land, telling regular stories based on the monthly numbers _ stories of people like Ron Edo, 42, an aircraft maintenance worker from Temecula, Calif., who has sent out more than 1,500 resumes since he lost his job a year ago. "Luckily I saved when I was young," he says. "My parents used to always tell me to save for a rainy day. And it's pouring." There are many more like him. The map shouts _ and in doing so, points us to the stories of the most wrenching economic conundrum of our age. ___ EDITOR'S NOTE _ Ted Anthony covers American culture for The Associated Press. More on Economy
Dan Dorfman: Only Five More Months of Economic Hell?	Top
This characterization essentially fits how a respected economist and a crack veteran investment adviser view the swelling belief so that we can all sleep better at night. Why so? Because of the mounting view that there's light at the end of the economic tunnel--that the severe downturn of the past couple of years which boosted the number of jobless Americans to 13.7 million, destroyed more than $12 trillion of wealth and forced financially-strapped households to abandon more than one million home is pretty much over. This kind of sunny talk--which has literally grown from a murmur to a roar in recent weeks, with much of the noise coming from the media and Washington politicians, as well as the White House--is pretty much viewed as a fairy tale by a couple of skeptics. One, Standard & Poor's senior economist David Wyss, is not one of those perennial doomsayers who sees dire economic times ahead, such as a killer of a depression. Rather, he thinks we're in for the longest and deepest recession since the 1930s. The big glimmer of help, as he sees it, is "we're not going down as fast and we're no longer in a panic mode," but, he hastens to point out, "we're still going down." Wyss figures we're in for "another five months of economic hell" before the recession is over. "No, make that five more months of modified economic hell," he says. Why more economic hell? Among his chief reasons: --Housing is stabilizing, but non-residential real estate (office and retail space) is taking a beating. --Equipment spending is falling. --Exports are also declining as seriously faltering economies in Europe and Japan undergo worse recessions than the one in the U.S. --Banks face more chaos, given potential losses in commercial mortgages and the likelihood of record losses in credit card and auto loans. Part of his hellish economic scenario also calls for further expansion of the unemployment rate. Now at 8.9%, Wyss sees it climbing to a 10.3% peak about a year from now. His economic expectations are equally gloomy. In the current quarter, he sees GDP retreating 3%. That's sharply lower than the 6%-plus declines of the past two quarters, but it's still a bad number, he says. For all of 2009, he expects a GDP decrease of 3.2%, followed by a modest 1.3% rise in 2010. "I would call next year positive, but not very positive," he says. How does he relate his bleak economic vision to his outlook for the stock market, which recently shot up about 30% in anticipation of better economic times ahead? Alas, not very positively. "The market has come too far too fast," Wyss tells me. His crystal ball shows a serious correction, at least a 10% decline, over the next three months. Our other skeptic is online investment adviser Mark Leibovit, who also offers up a dim market view. Leibovit, head of VRTrader.com of Sedona, Ariz., and rated one of the best market timers around, ridicules what he says is the fantasy of a quick economic recovery that continues to be perpetuated by the media and the talking heads in Washington. The rally was overdone on the hope of this economic recovery, which means, he says, there's a big disconnect between reality and sentiment. The latest economic data, he contends, shows the economy is getting worse, not better, and the mass delusion is very scary. Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, seems to concur somewhat with Leibovit, recently noting "we are not out of the woods and we have miles to go before we sleep." Further, Fisher believes we're likely to see a 10% jobless rate before we reverse course. While many Wall Street pros are gleefully predicting a further rise in stock prices, Leibovit suggests investor greed may once again be getting out of hand. Pointing to a recent rally of 2,118 points in the Dow Industrial's in a mere 60 days, he asks: Isn't that a sufficient enough bear market bounce? An equally relevant question, as he sees it, is whether a 50 retracement of that rally has now begun. Leibovit believes "we're now in a pullback phase," which indicates to our market worrier an impending decline in the Dow to the 7.200-75,00 range, from its current level of about 8,260. In any event, he expects a massive run for the exits once the market understands the recent rally was orchestrated to allow the ailing banks to get off secondary offerings. That's his reference to what he notes was the heavy political pressure from the Federal Reserve, Congress and Wall Street's aristocracy to force the Financial Accounting Standard Board (FASB) to alter a rule that gave banks leeway to value securities that have hurt earnings and capital. In effect, he argues that government manipulation was used to hype the bank stocks (up more than 80% since early March), which, in turn, set the stage for the recent rally. What should investors do? Leibovit thinks it's worth their seriously heeding the words of noted British economist John Maynard Keynes, who once said "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Dandordan@aol.com More on The Recession
Bill Press: Obama Wins One For the Gipper	Top
Notre Dame, South Bend... It wasn't exactly the miracle of the wedding feast of Cana. President Obama did not change water into wine. But he almost did. Instead, Obama changed what protesters tried to make an ugly scene about abortion into a triumphant message about faith-based politics. Here, in the Joyce Center, graduates and their families gave Obama a raucous welcome, greeting him like a rock star. In so doing, they rejected those small-minds from outside the university who protested Obama's appearance on a Catholic campus just because he happens to be pro-choice. Proving that crackpots never disappear, the protests were organized by perennial loser Alan Keyes, who is still looking for a political race he can win, and Randall Terry, who admitted he only joined the Notre Dame protest in order to breathe new life into his moribund organization, "Operation Rescue." Sadly, they were able to persuade 74 American Catholic bishops to join them. But they were all outgunned by Notre Dame President John Jenkins, who invited Obama in the first place, and then refused to back down. After all, Jenkins pointed out, every president since FDR has either received an honorary degree from Notre Dame or addressed commencement ceremonies, or both. They were invited, not because Catholic authorities agreed with them on every issue, but out of respect for the office of president. Besides, Jenkins understands, even if those 74 narrow-minded bishops don't, that abortion isn't the only issue important to Catholics. The Catholic Church also opposes the death penalty and unjust wars. So why didn't those same bishops speak out when warmonger and death penalty cheerleader George W. Bush came to campus? Bishops, too, can be hypocrites. Given all the controversy, it would have been easy for President Obama to duck this debate. Instead, he chose to meet it head-on. Making his critics, the Catholic bishops, look small by comparison, Obama said he came to campus in the spirit of any great university - "honest, thoughtful dialogue" - and in the spirit of Christianity - "finding common ground." Even on the thorny issue of abortion, Obama dared suggest, common ground was possible: "Maybe we won't agree on abortion, but we can still agree that this is a heart-wrenching decision for any woman to make, with both moral and spiritual dimensions." And on that issue, too, Obama called for honest, thoughtful, faith-based debate: "Each side will continue to make its case to the public with passion and conviction. But surely we can do so without reducing those with differing views to caricature." One by one, even as Obama was urging people of different opinions to reason together, three lone protestors stood and tried to disrupt his remarks, shouting "Abortion is murder." But they were themselves shouted down by the audience, and all three white males were escorted out of the arena. In the end, 2009 Commencement Exercises at Notre Dame ended up making a great day for America, a great day for the University of Notre Dame, but a sad day for the Catholic Church. How ironic. In the end, it took a non-Catholic to tell Catholic bishops what their faith is all about. More on Barack Obama
Bryan Young: Gov. Huntsman (R-UT) Goes to China	Top
By now, everyone knows that the early word is that Utah Governor Jon Huntsman has been tapped by the Obama administration to be the ambassador to China. I know it might seem counter-intuitive for Obama to be picking a Republican from one of the reddest states in the nation to lead anything, but as a Utah resident, I wanted to put everyone at ease. He's a pretty good guy. Hell, he's the first Republican I've ever voted for. He's level-headed, even-handed, well read, and well respected among everyone in the state, left, right, and center. The thing that impresses me most about Jon Huntsman as the Governor of Utah, is that even though he's of the majority party, he includes the voices of the minority as though it were an equal and he's not afraid to veto the idiotic bills brought to him by a legislature that by and large has only a tenuous grip on reality. He's even worked hard to liberalize the liquor laws that have strangled tourism (as well as my social life) in the state, against the will of his party and a majority of his supporters, simply because it's the right thing to do. He's vetoed a lot of legislation that's come across his desk and has one of the most progressive records on the environment in the west. Add to that, the fact that he's actually kept Utah's head largely above water through the economic crisis and you'll agree that he's actually a pretty good Governor. It's no wonder he was tapped by the Obama team for any job and he deserves our support and encouragement. He really is a stand-up act. (Bryan Young lives in Utah and is the producer of Killer at Large ) More on Barack Obama
Paul Raushenbush: Barack Obama's (and America's) Victory at Notre Dame	Top
Barack Obama's graduation address at Notre Dame was a victory for the President and for the United States. From the moment he walked onto the platform, to when he was conferred the honorary doctorate, to during and after his speech, the applause for President Obama was overwhelming and continuous - apparently making up for the months of hype which gave much too much prime-time press to the most radical elements of anti-abortion movement. At the announcement of Obama's address three months ago I guessed three interruptions of his speech, and I think I got it right. But those who did the interrupting were completely diminished by the spirit of reconciliation and respect exhibited by the President and the graduating class of Notre Dame. President Obama confirmed his approach which is sincerely aimed a creating a middle way for this most divisive of issues. In surrounding himself with both pro-life and pro-choice voices, the president is at least aware of the compelling arguments on both sides and he approaches them with respect. The President did not shy away from the difficult questions at hand but addressed them head on, reminding all of us (including Catholic voters) how fortunate we are as a nation. The anti-abortion protesters who dominated the news running up to Notre Dame's graduation remind me of similar anti-abortion activists who came to Princeton University last year. They set up their massive photos of aborted fetus and began to scream invectives at students as they went to and from classes. This did not go over well. At one point the student president of the Princeton Pro-Life group went over to speak with them to tell them that their tactics were counter productive -- he was, in turn, called something akin to satanic. While I am pro-choice, because I am at a University that values the free exchange of ideas and difference of views I have had the opportunity to have the anti-abortion position clearly laid out for me. This openness of debate has added to the subtlety of my thinking about the issue of abortion and made me more sympathetic to the passion exhibited by those on the other side. As President Obama said at Notre Dame, the pro-life movement is no longer filled with caricatures. Ultimately, the biggest winner today was Notre Dame. I watched their entire graduation which showcased talented students, an exciting faculty, and the University President Rev. John l. Jenkins, C.S.C. whose speech equaled President Obama's and showed that he is encouraging an environment of academic and intellectual freedom rooted in a Catholic social conscience. Well done President Obama, well done Notre Dame, well done America. More on Barack Obama
David Wild: Justin Timberlake: Pop Culture's Smartest Guy In The Room	Top
The other day I was thinking about Justin Timberlake -- a mildly curious thing for a straight man in his forties to spend much time doing, perhaps, but so be it. If it helps, I'm pretty sure that my wife was thinking about Justin too. We were both on a road trip with our two young boys, all of us happily listening as "Dead and Gone," Justin's stellar turn with T.I., kept popping up on a number of different radio stations. Later the whole family watched all the cleaner bits from last weekend's "Saturday Night Live" together and witnessed Justin kicking comedic ass yet again. That got me thinking about how amazing and impressive it is that the sweet, likeable and ambitious kid I first met in a Florida corporate park as a teenager more than a decade ago has gradually become a singular sensation -- arguably our current pop culture's smartest guy in the room, for real. Back when I met Justin in 1998, I was writing the first Rolling Stone profile about the then still up-and-coming boy band 'N Sync. I came away from a few days with the guys with two overriding impressions - one was that the group's self-proclaimed "Big Daddy" Lou Pearlman was pretty creepy. The fact that this middle aged boy band impresario mentioned the he'd also gotten into the Chippendale's business too should perhaps have set off a few dozen red flags, but somehow I didn't have a real clue that he was not just a creep, but a true scoundrel as well. Lou, if they happen get Huffington Post in whatever lucky penal facility currently houses your convicted ass, I apologize if I just ruined your otherwise lovely day in lockdown -- love or otherwise. My other infinitely more pleasant memory is of Justin himself. He seemed like very much a team player, but I recall him bringing me out to his brand new car and playing me a bunch of current favorite CDs -- a very cool and interesting selection of hip hop and soul recordings that in retrospect suggested the more interesting direction his own music would someday go. I got to see 'N Sync perform in Miami during my trip and that was my first indication of his ability as a singer and a performer. He was good even then, but you could see he wasn't going to be satisfied with simply being good for long. Somehow Justin's experiences as a child star had not made him crazy, but rather given him a sense of perspective about the business that seemed unusual for his age -- or any age actually. Since then I've had the pleasure of working with Justin a fair amount, and to this day, he strikes me as a guy with remarkably good instincts. The last time I saw Justin was at the Grammys where he graciously stepped in to help save the show after Chris Brown and Rihanna became the world's most famous no-shows. Working with Executive Producer Ken Ehrlich, Justin helped put together a spontaneously great Grammy moment with Reverend Al Green and an instant backing band. Backstage right before the show went live, I thanked Justin for helping us out. "It's what we do," Justin said. "Sadly Justin, we don't do the same thing," I told him. I won't feel too bad about that. Nobody else does everything Justin does -- or does so well. More on Chris Brown & Rihanna
Sean L. McCarthy: The SNL FAQ: Season Finale (Will Ferrell)	Top
You have questions about the season finale of Saturday Night Live . We have answers. Did they open with a political sketch? YES. Unpopular former Vice President Dick Cheney (Darrell Hammond, in his SNL swan song), got interrupted from his newfound love of media appearances by Will Ferrell in his now Tony-nominated performance of ex-President George W. Bush. Ferrell as Bush did get in a couple of digs on VP Joe Biden, wondering why Cheney wouldn't go out for burgers with him, and why Cheney wouldn't say dumb things to make Bush look smarter. How did the host do, and did he/she do anything outrageously funny? Will Ferrell dominated the episode from start to finish, appearing in every sketch of the night and bringing back his memorable impersonations of Bush, Alex Trebek and the ghost of Harry Caray. Who played President Obama? Not present. Looks like they took the hint. Was there a digital short? NO. Was there a fake ad? YES, BUT. It was a blast from the past. Specifically, Season #26, Epsiode 11 (Feb. 10, 2001), in which Ferrell played the dog-hating Wade Blasingame, ESQ., attorney at law. He has sued more than 2,000 dogs for getting away with things humans never could. Did the musical guest lip-sync or otherwise do something worth mentioning? Green Day proved they still can provide some power chord punk-pop, with two singles off their upcoming new release, "Know Your Enemy" and "21 Guns." Did my favorite character return? YES. Aside from all of the impersonations, Kristen Wiig's big-headed, tiny-handed singing sister returned in another Lawrence Welk sketch. Were there any celebrity cameos? YES. TONS. Tom Hanks played himself in the Jeopardy sketch, pretending to be dumber than you could possibly believe anyone to be, and playing it straight. Former SNLers Amy Poehler, Maya Rudolph and Norm MacDonald also returned; Poehler to the Weekend Update desk, Rudolph singing in a funeral sketch, and MacDonald playing Burt Reynolds on Jeopardy . Elisabeth Moss (Fred Armisen's fiancee) showed up briefly in the all-star singalong to Billy Joel's "Goodnight, Saigon." As did earlier season 34 SNL hosts Anne Hathaway and Paul Rudd. As did Artie Lange, for reasons unknown (other than being pals with MacDonald, I suppose). Did any celebrities get impersonated? YES. The Celebrity Jeopardy sketch featured Ferrell as Alex Trebek, Hammond as Sean Connery, MacDonald as Burt Reynolds and Wiig as Kathie Lee Gifford. We also saw an NBA on TNT sketch with Bill Hader as Ernie Johnson and Kenan Thompson as Charles Barkley. And Fred Armisen played Lawrence Welk. Did any politicians get impersonated? YES. See the aforementioned cold open. For the full recap and analysis of this episode of SNL, click here . More on SNL

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